Experiment ID
13
Pathogen
Contains Preferred Model
1
Reference
Host type
# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
k
2.95E+00
LD50/ID50
2.35E-01
Dose Units
Response
Agent Strain
Josiah strain
Exposure Route
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
Guinea pig/ Josiah strain model data [1]
Dose Dead Survived Total
0.02 1 9 10
0.2 4 6 10
2 10 0 10
24 10 0 10
2400 15 0 15
240000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.42 -0.000621 5 3.84 
1
11.1 
0.995
Beta Poisson 0.42 4 9.49 
0.981
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.95E+00 1.35E+00 1.61E+00 1.65E+00 5.43E+00 5.90E+00 7.52E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.35E-01 9.21E-02 1.17E-01 1.28E-01 4.21E-01 4.32E-01 5.14E-01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model