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Experiment ID
81, 215
Pathogen
Shigella dysenteriae
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Pathogenesis of Shigella dysenteriae 1 (Shiga) Dysentery
Host type
human
# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
4.93E-03
N50
3.64E-01
LD50/ID50
3.64E-01
Dose Units
CFU
Response
illness
Agent Strain
M 131
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
Model data for Shigella dysenteriae in the human [1]
Dose Illness Not illness Total
10 1 9 10
200 2 2 4
200 1 3 4
2000 7 3 10
1E+04 5 1 6
1E+04 2 4 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 30.5 16.9 5 3.84 
3.94e-05		 11.1 
1.2e-05
Beta Poisson 13.6 4 9.49 
0.00887
Neither the exponential nor beta-Poisson fits well; beta-Poisson is less bad.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 4.93E-03 9.85E-04 9.87E-04 9.88E-04 3.61E-01 4.26E-01 5.85E-01
N50 3.64E-01 2.07E-02 5.54E-02 7.42E-02 2.05E+03 4.61E+03 1.09E+28

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References