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Experiment ID
38, 39, 40, 42, 99, 144
Pathogen
Escherichia coli
Agent Strain
ETEC B7A
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
DuPont, H. L., Formal, S. B., Hornick, R. B., Snyder, M. J., Libonati, J. P., Sheahan, D. G., … Kalas, J. P. (1971). Pathogenesis of Escherichia coli diarrhea. The New England Journal of Medicine, 285, 1.
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Host type
human
# of Doses
15.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
1.78E-01
N50
8.6E+07
LD50/ID50
8.6E+07
Experiment Dataset
Description
E. coli disease (ETEC, EPEC, EIEC) in the human model data
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 0 5 5
1E+06 1 8 9
1E+08 1 4 5
1E+08 5 3 8
1E+08 3 2 5
1E+08 2 3 5
1.43E+08 6 2 8
2.7E+08 9 7 16
1.73E+09 5 2 7
5.33E+09 6 2 8
1E+10 4 1 5
1E+10 3 2 5
1.6E+10 7 1 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 119 113 14 3.84 
0 		23.7 
0
Beta Poisson 6.56 13 22.4 
0.924
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.78E-01 9.39E-02 1.09E-01 1.19E-01 3.21E-01 3.63E-01 4.77E-01
N50 8.6E+07 1.75E+07 2.62E+07 3.25E+07 2.63E+08 3.23E+08 5.21E+08
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model