Optimization Output for Exp. 38, 42, 99, 165 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	38, 42, 99, 165
Pathogen	Escherichia coli
Agent Strain	ETEC B7A
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	DuPont, H. L., Formal, S. B., Hornick, R. B., Snyder, M. J., Libonati, J. P., Sheahan, D. G., … Kalas, J. P. (1971). Pathogenesis of Escherichia coli diarrhea. The New England Journal of Medicine, 285, 1.
Exposure Route	oral (in milk)
Response	mild to severe diarrhea

Detailed information

Host type

human

# of Doses

11.00

Dose Units

CFU

Μodel

beta-Poisson

a

2.06E-01

N50

1.28E+08

LD50/ID50

1.28E+08

Experiment Dataset

Description

**ETEC disease, unbuffered, in the human model data**
Dose	Mild to severe diarrhea	No mild to severe diarrhea	Total
1E+06	0	4	4
1E+08	1	4	5
1E+08	2	3	5
1E+08	3	2	5
1.43E+08	6	2	8
1.73E+09	5	2	7
5.33E+09	6	2	8
1E+10	4	1	5
1E+10	3	2	5
1E+10	4	1	5
1.6E+10	7	1	8

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	68.4	62.9	10	3.84 2.22e-15	18.3 8.97e-11
Beta Poisson	5.53	62.9	9	3.84 2.22e-15	16.9 0.786
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	2.06E-01	1.75E-02	1.17E-01	1.32E-01	3.79E-01	4.29E-01	5.57E-01
N₅₀	1.28E+08	3.53E+05	3.17E+07	4.09E+07	3.83E+08	4.65E+08	6.86E+08

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model