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Experiment ID
40
Pathogen
Escherichia coli
Agent Strain
EIEC 1624
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
DuPont, H. L., Formal, S. B., Hornick, R. B., Snyder, M. J., Libonati, J. P., Sheahan, D. G., … Kalas, J. P. (1971). Pathogenesis of Escherichia coli diarrhea. The New England Journal of Medicine, 285, 1.
Exposure Route
oral (in milk)
Response
mild to severe diarrhea
Host type
human
# of Doses
3.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
exponential
k
1.22E-08
LD50/ID50
5.7E+07
Experiment Dataset
Description
Escherichia coli (EIEC 1624) in the human model data 
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 1 8 9
1E+08 3 2 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.99 2.98 2 3.84 
0.0845 		5.99 
0.224
Beta Poisson 0.0156 1 3.84 
0.901
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.22E-08 1.97E-09 2.19E-09 4.40E-09 4.03E-08 1.17E-07 2.50E-07
ID50/LD50/ETC* 5.7E+07 2.77E+06 5.92E+06 1.72E+07 1.58E+08 3.17E+08 3.52E+08
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References