Experiment ID
274
Agent Strain
SCHU S-4
Contains Preferred Model
Yes
Reference
Quan, S. F., McManus, A. G., & von Fintel, H. . (1956). Infectivity of Tularemia Applied to Intact Skin and Ingested in Drinking Water. Science, 123, 942-943.
Exposure Route
inhalation
Response
death
Host type
monkey
# of Doses
4.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
exponential
k
4.73E-02
LD50/ID50
1.46E+01
Description

Optimization Output for experiment 274

Monkeys / SCHU S-4 model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 1 5 6
11 3 3 6
32 4 2 6
65 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.26 -0.000367 3 3.84 
1
7.81 
0.738
Beta Poisson 1.26 2 5.99 
0.531
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 4.73E-02 2.28E-02 2.72E-02 2.98E-02 7.81E-02 9.03E-02 1.11E-01
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.46E+01 6.27E+00 7.67E+00 8.88E+00 2.33E+01 2.55E+01 3.04E+01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References