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Experiment ID
257, 258
Pathogen
Influenza
Agent Strain
H1N1,A/California/10/78 attenuated strain,H3N2,A/Washington/897/80 attenuated strain
Contains Preferred Model
Yes
Reference
Murphy, B. R., Clements, M. L., Madore, H. P., Steinberg, J. ., O’Donnell, S. ., Betts, R. ., … Maassab, H. F. (1984). Dose Response of Cold-Adapted, Reassortant Influenza A/California/10/78 Virus (H1N1) in Adult Volunteers. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 149, 5. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6726007
Exposure Route
intranasal
Response
infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
9.00
Dose Units
TCID50
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
5.81E-01
N50
9.45E+05
LD50/ID50
9.45E+05
Description
Pooled dose response data [1]
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
63095.73 0 15 15
1E+05 2 10 12
630957.3 4 7 11
1E+06 8 5 13
6309573 19 3 22
1E+07 16 3 19
31622777 16 4 20
63095734 24 1 25
1E+08 19 0 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 64 55.4 8 3.84 
9.68e-14 		15.5 
7.63e-11
Beta Poisson 8.56 7 14.1 
0.285
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 5.81E-01 3.61E-01 3.98E-01 4.24E-01 9.15E-01 1.02E+00 1.36E+00
N50 9.45E+05 4.38E+05 5.28E+05 5.72E+05 1.62E+06 1.79E+06 2.23E+06

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model