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Experiment ID
125
Pathogen
Rotavirus
Agent Strain
CJN strain (unpassaged
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Ward, R. L., Bernstein, D. I., Young, E. C., Sherwood, J. R., Knowlton, D. R., & Schiff, G. M. (1986). Human Rotavirus Studies in Volunteers: Determination of Infectious Dose and Serological Response to Infection. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 154, 5. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/154.5.871
Exposure Route
oral
Response
detectable shedding
Host type
human
# of Doses
8.00
Dose Units
FFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
9.6E-2
N50
96.1
LD50/ID50
96.1
Experiment Dataset
Description
Model data for rotavirus (CJN strain) in the human 
Dose Detectable shedding No detectable shedding Total
9E-03 0 7 7
0.09 0 7 7
0.9 1 6 7
9 8 3 11
90 4 3 7
900 3 5 8
9000 4 3 7
9E+04 2 1 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 157 148 7 3.84 
0 		14.1 
0
Beta Poisson 9.42 6 12.6 
0.151
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 9.6E-02 9.94E-04 9.96E-04 9.98E-04 1.59E-01 1.74E-01 2.05E-01
N50 9.61E+01 2.95E-03 1.59E-02 4.56E-02 2.83E+03 1.46E+04 1.58E+80

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References