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Experiment ID
153, 157, 159, 214, 216, 217
Pathogen
Escherichia coli
Agent Strain
EPEC E2348/69 (O127:H6)
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Tacket, C. O., Sztein, M. B., Losonsky, G. ., Abe, A. ., Finlay, B. B., McNamara, B. P., … Donnenberg, M. S. (2000). Role of EspB in Experimental Human Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli Infection. Infection and Immunity, 68, 6.
Exposure Route
oral (w. 2g NaHCO3)
Response
diarrhea
Host type
human
# of Doses
11.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
1.62E-01
N50
9.98E+07
LD50/ID50
9.98E+07
Experiment Dataset
Description
ETEC infection, unbuffered, in the human model data
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+06 1 4 5
1E+08 1 4 5
5E+08 3 2 5
2.5E+09 6 0 6
1E+10 9 1 10
1E+10 9 5 14
1E+10 3 2 5
1E+10 5 0 5
2E+10 2 0 2
2.3E+10 14 5 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 57.8 43.4 10 3.84 
4.51e-11 		18.3 
9.36e-09
Beta Poisson 14.4 9 16.9 
0.108
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.62E-01 8.23E-02 9.98E-02 1.08E-01 3.69E-01 4.21E-01 5.36E-01
N50 9.98E+07 7.29E+06 1.55E+07 2.20E+07 8.50E+08 1.06E+09 1.57E+09
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model