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Experiment ID
257
Pathogen
Influenza
Agent Strain
H1N1,A/California/10/78 attenuated strain
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Murphy, B. R., Clements, M. L., Tierney, E. L., Black, R. E., Stienberg, J. ., & Chanock, R. M. (1985). Dose Response of Influenza A/Washington/897/80 (H3N2) Avian-Human Reassortant Virus in Adult Volunteers. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 152, 1. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/30104663?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
Exposure Route
intranasal
Response
infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
4.00
Dose Units
TCID50
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
9.04E-01
N50
1.25E+06
LD50/ID50
1.25E+06
Description
human/H1N1 A/California/10/78 attenuated strain model data [2]
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
63095.73 0 15 15
630957.3 4 7 11
6309573 19 3 22
63095734 24 1 25

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 23.6 21.5 3 3.84 
3.47e-06 		7.81 
3.09e-05
Beta Poisson 2.02 2 5.99 
0.365
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 9.04E-01 4.20E-01 4.91E-01 5.45E-01 1.73E+03 2.57E+04 2.19E+05
N50 1.25E+06 5.27E+05 6.43E+05 7.19E+05 2.39E+06 2.74E+06 3.45E+06

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model