@article {1799, title = {{A} {data} {simulation} {method} to {optimize} a {mechanistic} {dose-response} {model} for {viral} {loads} of {hepatitis} {A}}, journal = {Microbial Risk Analysis}, year = {2019}, pages = {100102}, abstract = {

Driven by the quantitative estimate of risk via the dose-response models, quantitative microbial risk assessment has been used successfully for public health interventions. The dose-response models are derived starting from an average exposed dose of infectious particles, this dictates the dose data units required. Then dose-response data from animal model experiments are used to optimize these mechanistic dose-response models. For hepatitis A (Hep-A), the only available dose-response data use grams of feces for dose units. Therefore, to develop a dose-response model for Hep-A a method of converting these doses in grams of feces into infectious particles, while accounting for the uncertainty of this conversion is needed. This research develops a method to couple data simulation with the likelihood estimation method for model optimization to accomplish this. This adapted method uses data simulation to model the doses as viruses while accounting for the within-group variability of this simulation. Then these simulated doses, coupled with the original dose-response data, are used to optimize the mechanistic dose-response models. This method results in a more computationally rigorous means of modeling these types of dose-response data. The resulting dose-response model for Hep-A is also more appropriate to use than the current option for Hep-A risk models.

}, keywords = {Data simulation, Dose-response, Hepatitis A, QMRA}, issn = {2352-3522}, doi = {10.1016/j.mran.2019.100102}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352219300222}, author = {Weir, Mark H.} } @article {hwmsdb, title = {De la Macorra F and Corozza FA (1966) Study of induced typhoid fever in man. I. Evaluation of vaccine effectiveness}, journal = {Transactions of the Association of American Physicians}, volume = {79}, year = {Submitted}, pages = {361}, author = {Hornick, R B and Woodward, T E and McCrumb, F R and Snyder, M J and Dawkins, A T and Bulkeley, J T} } @book {hhmxkt06, title = {Deaths: Final Data for National Vital Statistics Reports.}, year = {2006}, publisher = {National Center for Health Statistics}, organization = {National Center for Health Statistics}, url = {http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_14.pdf}, author = {Heron, M. and Hoyert, D. and Murphy, S. L. and Xu, J. and Kochanek, K. D. and Tejada-Vera, B.}, editor = {Division of Vital Statistics} } @article {1856, title = {Defective Phagocytosis and Clearance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the Lung Following Bone Marrow Transplantation}, journal = {The Journal of Immunology}, volume = {171}, year = {2003}, month = {2003/10/15/}, pages = {4416 - 4424}, abstract = {

Abstract Bone marrow transplantation (BMT) is an important therapeutic option for a variety of malignant and nonmalignant disorders. Unfortunately, BMT recipients are at increased risk of infection, and in particular, pulmonary complications occur frequently. Although the risk of infection is greatest during the neutropenic period immediately following transplant, patients are still vulnerable to pulmonary infections even after neutrophil engraftment. We evaluated the risk of infection in this postengraftment period by using a well-established mouse BMT model. Seven days after syngeneic BMT, B6D2F1 mice are no longer neutropenic, and by 3 wk, they demonstrate complete reconstitution of the peripheral blood. However, these mice remain more susceptible throughout 8 wk to infection after intratracheal administration of Pseudomonas aeruginosa; increased mortality in the P. aeruginosa-infected BMT mice correlates with increased bacterial burden in the lungs as well as increased systemic dissemination. This heightened susceptibility to infection was not secondary to a defect in inflammatory cell recruitment to the lung. The inability to clear P. aeruginosa in the lung correlated with reduced phagocytosis of the bacteria by alveolar macrophages (AMs), but not neutrophils, decreased production of TNF-α by AMs, and decreased levels of TNF-α and IFN-γ in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid following infection. Expression of the β2 integrins CD11a and CD11c was reduced on AMs from BMT mice compared with wild-type mice. Thus, despite restoration of peripheral blood count, phagocytic defects in the AMs of BMT mice persist and may contribute to the increased risk of infection seen in the postengraftment period.

}, isbn = {0022-1767, 1550-6606}, url = {https://journals.aai.org/jimmunol/article/171/8/4416/35775/Defective-Phagocytosis-and-Clearance-of}, author = {Ojielo, Charles I. and Cooke, Kenneth and Mancuso, Pete and Standiford, Theodore J. and Olkiewicz, Krystyna M. and Clouthier, Shawn and Corrion, Leigh and Ballinger, Megan N. and Toews, Galen B. and Paine, Robert and Moore, Bethany B.} } @article {1917, title = {Defective phagocytosis and clearance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the lung following bone marrow transplantation}, journal = {The Journal of Immunology}, volume = {171}, year = {2003}, pages = {4416{\textendash}4424}, author = {Ojielo, Charles I and Cooke, Kenneth and Mancuso, Pete and Standiford, Theodore J and Olkiewicz, Krystyna M and Clouthier, Shawn and Corrion, Leigh and Ballinger, Megan N and Toews, Galen B and Paine, Robert and others} } @article {ht, title = {Development and Validation of Dose-Response Relationship for Listeria monocytogenes}, journal = {Quantitative Microbiology}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, year = {1999}, pages = {89-102}, author = {Haas, C N and Thayyar-Madabusi, A} } @article {h, title = {Development of a dose-response relationship for Escherichia coli O157:H7}, journal = {International Journal of Food Microbiology}, volume = {56}, number = {2-3}, year = {2000}, month = {2000}, pages = {153-159}, url = {http://smas.chemeng.ntua.gr/miram/files/publ_47_9_1_2004.pdf}, author = {Haas, C. N. and others} } @article {weir2017development, title = {Development of a microbial dose response visualization and modelling application for QMRA modelers and educators}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {88}, year = {2017}, pages = {74{\textendash}83}, publisher = {Elsevier}, author = {Weir, Mark H and Mitchell, Jade and Flynn, William and Pope, Joanna M} } @book {wmfp, title = {Development of a Microbial Dose Response Visualization and Modelling Application for QMRA Modelers and Educators}, year = {2016}, publisher = {Environmental Modelling and Software}, organization = {Environmental Modelling and Software}, author = {Weir, M. H. and Mitchell, J. and Flynn, W. B. and Pope, J. M.} } @mastersthesis {w09, title = {Development of a Physiologically Based Pathogen Transport and Kinetics Model for the Inhalation of {\textquoteright}{\textquoteright}Bacillus anthracis{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} Spores}, year = {2009}, school = {Drexel University}, address = {Philadelphia PA}, url = {http://wiki.camra.msu.edu/images/b/bf/WeirM_2009_Dissertation.pdf}, author = {Weir, M H} } @article {weir2009development, title = {Development of physiologically based pathogen transport and kinetics model for inhalation of Bacillus anthracis spores}, year = {2009}, author = {Weir, Mark H} } @article {lcwchs77, title = {Diarrhea caused by Escherichia coli that produce only heat-stable enterotoxin}, journal = {Infection and Immunity}, volume = {17}, year = {1977}, pages = {1}, author = {Levine, M M and Caplan, E S and Waterman, D and Cash, R A and Hornick, R B and Snyder, M J} } @article {nk98, title = {Diarrheagenic Escherichia coli}, journal = {Clinical Microbiology Reviews}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, year = {1998}, pages = {142-201}, url = {http://cmr.asm.org/cgi/reprint/11/1/142}, author = {Nataro, J P and Kaper, J B} } @article {gabdfamp86, title = {Diarrhoea in Mice Infected with a Human Rotavirus}, journal = {Journal of General Virology}, volume = {67}, year = {1986}, pages = {3}, author = {Gouvea, V. S. and Alencar, A. A. and Barth, O. M. and Castro L. de and Fialho, A. M. and Ara{\~A}{\textordmasculine}jo, H. P. and Majerowicz, S. and Pereira, H. G.} } @article {collier2012direct, title = {Direct healthcare costs of selected diseases primarily or partially transmitted by water}, journal = {Epidemiology \& Infection}, volume = {140}, number = {11}, year = {2012}, pages = {2003{\textendash}2013}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, author = {Collier, SA and Stockman, LJ and Hicks, LA and Garrison, LE and Zhou, FJ and Beach, MJ} } @article {1195, title = {Disinfection of greywater effluent and regrowth potential of selected bacteria}, journal = {Water Science and Technology}, volume = {63}, year = {2011}, pages = {931{\textendash}940}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2011.272}, url = { https://iwaponline.com/wst/article-abstract/63/5/931/16846/Disinfection-of-greywater-effluent-and-regrowth?redirectedFrom=fulltext }, author = {Friedler, Eran and Yardeni, Anat and Gilboa, Yael and Alfiya, Yuval} } @article {c11, title = {Distinguishing characteristics between pandemic 2009{\textendash}2010 influenza A (H1N1) and other viruses in patients hospitalized with respiratory illness}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {6}, year = {2011}, pages = {9}, author = {Chan, Philip A. and others} } @article {1887, title = {Do US Environmental Protection Agency water quality guidelines for recreational waters prevent gastrointestinal illness? A systematic review and meta-analysis.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {111}, year = {2003}, pages = {1102{\textendash}1109}, author = {Wade, Timothy J and Pai, Nitika and Eisenberg, Joseph NS and Colford Jr, John M} } @article {powell_dose-response_nodate, title = {Dose-{Response} {Envelope} for {Escherichia} coli}, year = {Submitted}, pages = {24}, abstract = {Escherichia coli O157:H7 is an emerging food and waterborne pathogen in the U.S. and internationally. The objective of this work was to develop a dose-response model for illness by this organism that bounds the uncertainty in the dose-response relationship. No human clinical trial data are available for E. coli O157:H7, but such data are available for two surrogate pathogens: enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) and Shigella dysenteriae. E. coli O157:H7 outbreak data provide an initial estimate of the most likely value of the dose-response relationship within the bounds of an envelope de{\textregistered}ned by beta-Poisson dose-response models {\textregistered}t to the EPEC and S. dysenteriae data. The most likely value of the median effective dose for E. coli O157:H7 is estimated to be approximately 190 000 colony forming units (cfu). At a dose level of 100 cfu, the median response predicted by the model is six percent.}, author = {Powell, Mark R and Ebel, Eric and Schlosser, Wayne and Walderhaug, Mark and Kause, Janell} } @article {tts04, title = {Dose response for infection by Escherichia coli O157:H7 from outbreak data}, journal = {Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, year = {2004}, pages = {401-407}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00441.x/pdf}, author = {Teunis, P. and Takumi, K. and Shinagawa, K.} } @article {cgcht06, title = {Dose response for infectivity of several strains of {\textquoteright}{\textquoteright}Campylobacter jejuni{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} in chickens}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, year = {2006}, pages = {1613-1621}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00850.x/pdf}, author = {Chen, L. and Geys, H. and Cawthraw, S. and Havelaar, A. and Teunis, P.} } @article {cgcht06, title = {Dose response for infectivity of several strains of Campylobacter jejuni in chickens}, journal = {Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, year = {2006}, pages = {1613-1621}, author = {Chen, L. and Geys, H. and Cawthraw, S. and Havelaar, A. and Teunis, P.} } @article {cgcht06, title = {Dose Response for Infectivity of Several Strains of Campylobacter jejuni in Chickens}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {26}, year = {2006}, pages = {6}, author = {Chen, L. and Geys, H. and Cawthraw, S. and Havelaar, A. and Teunis, P.} } @article {chen2006dose, title = {Dose response for infectivity of several strains of Campylobacter jejuni in chickens}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, year = {2006}, pages = {1613{\textendash}1621}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, author = {Chen, Lailai and Geys, Helena and Cawthraw, Shaun and Havelaar, Arie and Teunis, Peter} } @article {1853, title = {A dose response model for the inhalation route of exposure to P. aeruginosa}, journal = {Microbial Risk Analysis}, volume = {15}, year = {2020}, month = {2020/08//}, pages = {100115}, abstract = {

This study develops a dose response model for Pseudomonas aeruginosa for the inhalation route of exposure using pre-existing data. P. aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen capable of causing community and hospital-acquired lung infections. As such, a dose response model for this route of exposure is needed to assess risks posed by the inhalation of aerosols from showers, humidifiers, or hot tubs contaminated with P. aeruginosa. Single-hit theory models traditionally used for dose response modeling did not provide significant fits to the limited available data. The multi-hit dose response model operates under the cooperativity theory and did provide a significant fit, suggesting that a single P. aeruginosa bacterium is not sufficient to initiate a pulmonary infection in an immunocompetent host. A hierarchical Bayesian analysis was used to benchmark this model against additional dose response experiments and results further suggested that the multi-hit model may better represent the dose response behavior for this exposure route. The best fitting model has an LD50 of 2,588,047 Colony Forming Units. This model can be used to quantify risk in inhalation exposure scenarios, however, due to the limited amount of primary data, it is especially important for any future risk assessment to analyze the impact that using different dose response models may have on the final risk estimates and recommended control measures.

}, isbn = {23523522}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2352352220300219}, author = {Dean, Kara and Mitchell, Jade} } @article {1821, title = {A dose response model for the inhalation route of exposure to {P}. aeruginosa}, journal = {Microbial Risk Analysis}, volume = {15}, year = {2020}, pages = {100115}, abstract = {

This study develops a dose response model for Pseudomonas aeruginosa for the inhalation route of exposure using pre-existing data. P. aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen capable of causing community and hospital-acquired lung infections. As such, a dose response model for this route of exposure is needed to assess risks posed by the inhalation of aerosols from showers, humidifiers, or hot tubs contaminated with P. aeruginosa. Single-hit theory models traditionally used for dose response modeling did not provide significant fits to the limited available data. The multi-hit dose response model operates under the cooperativity theory and did provide a significant fit, suggesting that a single P. aeruginosa bacterium is not sufficient to initiate a pulmonary infection in an immunocompetent host. A hierarchical Bayesian analysis was used to benchmark this model against additional dose response experiments and results further suggested that the multi-hit model may better represent the dose response behavior for this exposure route. The best fitting model has an LD50 of 2,588,047 Colony Forming Units. This model can be used to quantify risk in inhalation exposure scenarios, however, due to the limited amount of primary data, it is especially important for any future risk assessment to analyze the impact that using different dose response models may have on the final risk estimates and recommended control measures.

}, issn = {23523522}, doi = {10.1016/j.mran.2020.100115}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2352352220300219}, author = {Dean, Kara and Mitchell, Jade} } @article {n, title = {Dose response modelling of Escherichia coli O157 incorporating data from foodborne and environmental outbreaks}, journal = {International Journal of Food Microbiology}, volume = {103}, number = {1}, year = {2005}, pages = {35-47}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MImg\&_imagekey=B6T7K-4FNCW2P-2-7\&_cdi=5061\&_user=1111158\&_pii=S0168160505000693\&_origin=gateway\&_coverDate=08}, author = {Strachan Njc and others} } @article {s05, title = {Dose response modelling of Escherichia coli O157 incorporating data from foodborne and environmental outbreaks}, journal = {International Journal of Food Microbiology}, volume = {103}, number = {1}, year = {2005}, pages = {35-47}, author = {Strachan, N. J. C. al.} } @article {ndkro05, title = {Dose response modelling of Escherichia coli O157 incorporating data from foodborne and environmental outbreaks}, journal = {International Journal of Food Microbiology}, volume = {103}, year = {2005}, pages = {1}, author = {Strachan Njc and Doyle, M. P. and Kasuga, F. and Rotariu, O. and Ogden, I. D.} } @article {1262, title = {Dose response models and a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for the Mycobacterium avium complex that account for recent developments in molecular biology, taxonomy, and epidemiology}, journal = {Water Research}, volume = {109}, year = {2016}, month = {11}, author = {Hamilton, Kerry and Weir, Mark and Haas, Charles} } @article {1833, title = {Dose response models for infectious gastroenteritis}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {19}, year = {1999}, pages = {1251{\textendash}1260}, author = {Teunis, Peter FM and Nagelkerke, Nico JD and Haas, Charles N} } @article {mcmsobdrdm84, title = {Dose Response of Cold-Adapted, Reassortant Influenza A/California/10/78 Virus (H1N1) in Adult Volunteers}, journal = {Journal of Infectious Diseases}, volume = {149}, year = {1984}, pages = {5}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6726007}, author = {Murphy, B R and Clements, M L and Madore, H P and Steinberg, J and O{\textquoteright}Donnell, S and Betts, R and Demico, D and Reichman, R C and Dolin, R and Maassab, H F} } @article {mctbsc85, title = {Dose Response of Influenza A/Washington/897/80 (H3N2) Avian-Human Reassortant Virus in Adult Volunteers}, journal = {The Journal of Infectious Diseases}, volume = {152}, year = {1985}, pages = {1}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/30104663?seq=1$\#$page_scan_tab_contents}, author = {Murphy, B R and Clements, M L and Tierney, E L and Black, R E and Stienberg, J and Chanock, R M} } @article {p00, title = {Dose-response envelope for Escherichia coli}, journal = {Quantitative Microbiology}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, year = {2000}, pages = {141-163}, author = {Powell, Mark R. and others} } @article {p00, title = {Dose-response envelope for Escherichia coli O157:H7}, journal = {Quantitative Microbiology}, volume = {2}, year = {2000}, pages = {141-163}, url = {http://www.springerlink.com/content/k3t3768n75w16246/fulltext.pdf}, author = {Powell, M R and Eric Ebel and Wayne Schlosser and Mark Walderhaug and Janell Kause} } @article {stawmrmd08, title = {Dose-Response Model for Listeria monocytogenes-Induced Stillbirths in Nonhuman Primates}, journal = {Infection and Immunity}, volume = {76}, year = {2008}, pages = {2}, author = {Smith, M A and Takeuchi, K and Anderson, G and Ware, G O and McClure, H M and Raybourne, R B and Mytle, N and Doyle, M P} } @article {thhb11, title = {Dose-Response Model of Coxiella burnetii (Q Fever)}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, year = {2011}, pages = {120-128}, author = {Tamrakar, S B and Haluska, A and Haas, C N and Bartrand, B A} } @article {tamrakar2011dose, title = {Dose-Response Model of Coxiella burnetii (Q Fever)}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, year = {2011}, pages = {120{\textendash}128}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, author = {Tamrakar, Sushil B and Haluska, Anne and Haas, Charles N and Bartrand, Timothy A} } @article {w16, title = {Dose-Response Modeling and Use: Challenges and Uncertainties in Environmental Exposure}, journal = {In Manual of Environmental Microbiology}, volume = {3}, year = {2016}, pages = {5}, url = {http://www.asmscience.org/content/book/10.1128/9781555818821}, author = {Weir, M. H.} } @article {bwh08, title = {Dose-Response Models for Inhalation of Bacillus anthracis Spores: Interspecies Comparisons}, journal = {Risk Analysis}, volume = {28}, year = {2008}, pages = {4}, author = {Bartrand, T. A. and Weir, M. H. and Haas, C. N.} } @article {wicm, title = {Dose-Response of Listeria monocytogenes after Oral Exposure in Pregnant Guinea Pigs}, journal = {Journal of Food Protection}, volume = {70}, year = {Submitted}, pages = {5}, author = {Williams, D and Irvin, E A and Chmielewski, R A and Frank J F (May)} } @article {1827, title = {Dose-response study of RIT 4237 oral rotavirus vaccine in breast-fed and formula-fed infants.}, journal = {Pediatric infectious disease}, volume = {4}, year = {1985}, pages = {622{\textendash}625}, author = {Vesikari, Timo and Ruuska, TARJA and Bogaerts, HUGUES and Delem, ANDR{\'E}E and Andr{\'e}, FRANCIS} } @article {volker2010drinking, title = {Drinking water quality in household supply infrastructure{\textemdash}A survey of the current situation in Germany}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {213}, number = {3}, year = {2010}, pages = {204{\textendash}209}, publisher = {Elsevier}, author = {V{\"o}lker, Sebastian and Schreiber, Christiane and Kistemann, Thomas} }