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General Overview

According to Stalkup and Chilukuri[1], enterovirus, a small (30 nm), nonenveloped, single-stranded RNA viruses, belongs to the family Picornaviridae. While most of the enterovirus infections are relatively mild and result in complete recovery of the patient, they can also cause severe and fatal diseases such as meningitis, encephalitis, myocarditis, neonatal sepsis, and polio like paralytic diseases. Infection occurs mainly via fecal-oral transmission and less commonly by respiratory droplets. While no known non-human reservoirs have been identified, water-borne, foodborne, and blood-borne transmissions have been reported.

Summary Data

Cliver[2] challenged pigs with Porcine enterovirus type 3 and 7 via oral exposure route.

Exponential and betapoisson model.jpg

References

  1. Citekey 1267 not found
  2. Cliver, D. O. (1981).  Experimental infection by waterborne enteroviruses. Journal of Food Protection. 44, 861–865.
ID # of Doses Agent Strain Dose Units Host type Μodel Optimized parameters Response type Reference
62 3 porcine, PE3-ECPO-6 PFU pig exponential
k = 2.96E-04
LD50/ID50 = 2.34E+03

infection Cliver, Dean O.. "Experimental infection by waterborne enteroviruses." Journal of Food Protection. 44 (1981): 861-865.
63 3 porcine, PE7-05i PFU pig exponential
k = 3.74E-03
LD50/ID50 = 1.85E+02

infection Cliver, Dean O.. "Experimental infection by waterborne enteroviruses." Journal of Food Protection. 44 (1981): 861-865.
Experiment ID:
62
# of Doses:
3
Agent Strain:
porcine, PE3-ECPO-6
Dose Units:
PFU
Host type:
pig
Μodel:
exponential
Optimized parameters:
k = 2.96E-04
LD50/ID50 = 2.34E+03

Reference:
Pigs/ Porcine enterovirus type 3 Strain model data [1]
Dose infected Non-infected Total
100 0 3 3
250 0 6 6
1000 2 4 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.24 -0.000314 2 3.84 
1		 5.99 
0.537
Beta Poisson 1.24 1 3.84 
0.265
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.96E-04 2.40E-17 2.40E-17 2.40E-17 7.19E-04 7.19E-04 1.02E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.34E+03 6.77E+02 9.64E+02 9.64E+02 2.89E+16 2.89E+16 2.89E+16
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  1. Cliver, D. O. (1981).  Experimental infection by waterborne enteroviruses. Journal of Food Protection. 44, 861-865.
Recommended
Experiment ID:
63
# of Doses:
3
Agent Strain:
porcine, PE7-05i
Dose Units:
PFU
Host type:
pig
Μodel:
exponential
Optimized parameters:
k = 3.74E-03
LD50/ID50 = 1.85E+02

Reference:
pigs/ Porcine enterovirus type 7 [1]
Dose infected Non-infected Total
250 4 2 6
250 3 3 6
1000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.614 -5.49e-05 2 3.84 
1		 5.99 
0.736
Beta Poisson 0.614 1 3.84 
0.433
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 3.74E-03 1.83E-03 2.19E-03 2.19E-03 5.62E-03 5.62E-03 5.62E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.85E+02 1.23E+02 1.23E+02 1.23E+02 3.16E+02 3.16E+02 3.79E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  1. Cliver, D. O. (1981).  Experimental infection by waterborne enteroviruses. Journal of Food Protection. 44, 861-865.