Experiment ID
153, 157, 159, 214, 216, 217
Pathogen
Escherichia coli
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Host type
# of Doses
11.00
Μodel
a
1.62E-01
N50
9.98E+07
LD50/ID50
9.98E+07
Dose Units
Response
Agent Strain
EPEC E2348/69 (O127:H6)
Exposure Route
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
ETEC infection, unbuffered, in the human model data
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+06 1 4 5
1E+08 1 4 5
5E+08 3 2 5
2.5E+09 6 0 6
1E+10 9 1 10
1E+10 9 5 14
1E+10 3 2 5
1E+10 5 0 5
2E+10 2 0 2
2.3E+10 14 5 19

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 57.8 43.4 10 3.84 
4.51e-11
18.3 
9.36e-09
Beta Poisson 14.4 9 16.9 
0.108
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.62E-01 8.23E-02 9.98E-02 1.08E-01 3.69E-01 4.21E-01 5.36E-01
N50 9.98E+07 7.29E+06 1.55E+07 2.20E+07 8.50E+08 1.06E+09 1.57E+09

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model