Experiment ID
38, 42, 99, 165
Pathogen
Escherichia coli
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Host type
# of Doses
11.00
Μodel
a
2.06E-01
N50
1.28E+08
LD50/ID50
1.28E+08
Dose Units
Response
Agent Strain
ETEC B7A
Exposure Route
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
ETEC disease, unbuffered, in the human model data
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+08 1 4 5
1E+08 2 3 5
1E+08 3 2 5
1.43E+08 6 2 8
1.73E+09 5 2 7
5.33E+09 6 2 8
1E+10 4 1 5
1E+10 3 2 5
1E+10 4 1 5
1.6E+10 7 1 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 68.4 62.9 10 3.84 
2.22e-15
18.3 
8.97e-11
Beta Poisson 5.53 9 16.9 
0.786
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.06E-01 1.75E-02 1.17E-01 1.32E-01 3.79E-01 4.29E-01 5.57E-01
N50 1.28E+08 3.53E+05 3.17E+07 4.09E+07 3.83E+08 4.65E+08 6.86E+08

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model