Experiment ID
40
Pathogen
Escherichia coli
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Host type
# of Doses
3.00
Μodel
k
1.22E-08
LD50/ID50
5.7E+07
Dose Units
Response
Agent Strain
EIEC 1624
Exposure Route
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
Escherichia coli (EIEC 1624) in the human model data [1]
Dose Mild to severe diarrhea No mild to severe diarrhea Total
1E+04 0 5 5
1E+06 1 8 9
1E+08 3 2 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.99 2.98 2 3.84 
0.0845
5.99 
0.224
Beta Poisson 0.0156 1 3.84 
0.901
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.22E-08 1.97E-09 2.19E-09 4.40E-09 4.03E-08 1.17E-07 2.50E-07
ID50/LD50/ETC* 5.7E+07 2.77E+06 5.92E+06 1.72E+07 1.58E+08 3.17E+08 3.52E+08
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model


References