Experiment ID
82, 223
Pathogen
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Host type
# of Doses
9.00
Μodel
a
1.17E-01
N50
3.64E+03
LD50/ID50
3.64E+03
Dose Units
Response
Agent Strain
2a (strain 2457T)
Exposure Route
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
Model data for Shigella flexneri (2a, strain 2457T) in the human 
Dose Illness Not illness Total
180 9 27 36
5000 28 21 49
1E+04 1 3 4
1E+04 52 36 88
1E+05 3 1 4
1E+05 14 10 24
1E+06 7 1 8
1E+07 13 6 19
1E+08 7 1 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom
χ20.95,1 
p-value
χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 677 671 8 3.84 
0
15.5 
0
Beta Poisson 6.04 7 14.1 
0.535
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.17E-01 4.86E-02 6.43E-02 7.25E-02 1.68E-01 1.78E-01 2.02E-01
N50 3.64E+03 3.32E+02 8.92E+02 1.22E+03 9.16E+03 1.12E+04 1.73E+04

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model