Optimization Output for Exp. 17 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	17
Pathogen	Burkholderia mallei
Agent Strain	KHW
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Liu, B. ., Koo, G. C., Yap, E. H., Chua, K. L., & Y-h, G. . (2002). Model of Differential Susceptibility to Mucosal Burkholderia pseudomallei Infection. Infection and Immunity, 70, 2.
Exposure Route	intranasal
Response	infection

Detailed information

Host type

BALB/c mice

# of Doses

5.00

Dose Units

CFU

Μodel

exponential

k

1.04E-02

LD50/ID50

6.63E+01

Experiment Dataset

Description

**BALB/c Mice KHW Strain Data**
Dose	Infected	Non-infected	Total
5	0	6	6
15	0	6	6
45	3	1	4
135	4	2	6
405	6	0	6

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	5.25	-0.000362	4	3.84 1	9.49 0.263
Beta Poisson	5.25	-0.000362	3	3.84 1	7.81 0.154
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	1.04E-02	4.94E-03	5.96E-03	6.60E-03	1.92E-02	2.45E-02	2.45E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC*	6.63E+01	2.82E+01	2.82E+01	3.61E+01	1.05E+02	1.16E+02	1.40E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References