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Experiment ID
255
Pathogen
Adenovirus
Agent Strain
type 4
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Schiff, G. M., Stefanović, G. M., Young, E. C., Sander, D. S., Pennekamp, J. K., & Ward, R. L. (1984). Studies of echovirus-12 in volunteers: determination of minimal infectious dose and the effect of previous infection on infectious dose. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 150, 6. Retrieved from https://academic.oup.com/jid/article-abstract/150/6/858/880281
Exposure Route
intranasal
Response
infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
5.00
Dose Units
TCID50
Μodel
exponential
k
1.51E-02
LD50/ID50
4.59E+01
Description
Humans/ type 4 Strain model data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
3 0 6 6
10 0 2 2
14 1 1 2
79 2 1 3
400 3 0 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 2.14 -0.00118 4 3.84 
1 		9.49 
0.71
Beta Poisson 2.14 3 7.81 
0.544
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.51E-02 4.00E-03 5.88E-03 6.35E-03 4.56E-02 4.56E-02 4.56E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC* 4.59E+01 1.52E+01 1.52E+01 1.52E+01 1.09E+02 1.18E+02 1.73E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Couch, R. B., Knight, V. ., Douglas, R. G. , Jr, Black, S. H., & Hamory, B. H. (1969). The minimal infectious dose of adenovirus type 4; the case for natural transmission by viral aerosol. Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association, 80, 205. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2441001/