Humans/ type 4 Strain model data [1]
| Dose |
Infected |
Non-infected |
Total |
| 3 |
0 |
6 |
6 |
| 10 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
| 14 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
| 79 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| 400 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
Goodness of fit and model selection
| Model |
Deviance |
Δ |
Degrees
of freedom |
χ20.95,1
p-value |
χ20.95,m-k
p-value |
| Exponential |
2.14 |
-0.00118 |
4 |
3.84
1 |
9.49
0.71 |
| Beta Poisson |
2.14 |
3 |
7.81
0.544 |
| Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential. |
|
Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
| Parameter |
MLE estimate |
Percentiles |
| 0.5% |
2.5% |
5% |
95% |
97.5% |
99.5% |
| k |
1.51E-02 |
4.00E-03 |
5.88E-03 |
6.35E-03 |
4.56E-02 |
4.56E-02 |
4.56E-02 |
| ID50/LD50/ETC* |
4.59E+01 |
1.52E+01 |
1.52E+01 |
1.52E+01 |
1.09E+02 |
1.18E+02 |
1.73E+02 |
| *Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models. |
|
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
References
QMRA