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Experiment ID
31
Pathogen
Adenovirus
Agent Strain
type 4
Contains Preferred Model
Yes
Reference
Couch, R. B., Cate, T. R., Douglas, R. G., Gerone, P. J., & . (1966). Effect of route of inoculation on experimental respiratory viral disease in volunteers and evidence for airborne transmission. Bacteriological Reviews, 30, 3.
Exposure Route
inhalation
Response
infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
4.00
Dose Units
TCID50
Μodel
exponential
k
6.07E-01
LD50/ID50
1.14E+00
Description
Humans/ type 4 Strain model data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
1 1 2 3
5 3 0 3
11 3 0 3
1000 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.487 -0.000723 3 3.84 
1 		7.81 
0.922
Beta Poisson 0.488 2 5.99 
0.784
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 6.07E-01 3.87E-01 3.87E-01 3.87E-01 1.13E+00 1.13E+00 1.13E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.14E+00 6.11E-01 6.11E-01 6.11E-01 1.79E+00 1.79E+00 1.79E+00
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Couch, R. B., Cate, T. R., Douglas, R. G., Gerone, P. J., & . (1966). Effect of route of inoculation on experimental respiratory viral disease in volunteers and evidence for airborne transmission. Bacteriological Reviews, 30, 3.