Optimization Output for Exp. 31

Basic Information

Experiment ID	31
Pathogen	Adenovirus
Contains Preferred Model	1
Reference	Effect of route of inoculation on experimental respiratory viral disease in volunteers and evidence for airborne transmission

Detailed information

Host type

# of Doses

4.00

Μodel

6.07E-01

LD50/ID50

1.14E+00

Dose Units

Response

Agent Strain

type 4

Exposure Route

Experiment Dataset

Description:

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	0.487	-0.000723	3	3.84 1	7.81 0.922
Beta Poisson	0.488	-0.000723	2	3.84 1	5.99 0.784
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	6.07E-01	3.87E-01	3.87E-01	3.87E-01	1.13E+00	1.13E+00	1.13E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC*	1.14E+00	6.11E-01	6.11E-01	6.11E-01	1.79E+00	1.79E+00	1.79E+00
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References