Optimization Output for Exp. 87

Basic Information

Experiment ID	87
Pathogen	Bacillus anthracis
Contains Preferred Model	1
Reference	Experiments in feeding adult volunteers with Escherichia coli 55, B5, a coliform organism associated with infant diarrhea

Detailed information

Host type

# of Doses

4.00

Μodel

1.65E-05

LD50/ID50

4.2E+04

Dose Units

Response

Agent Strain

Vollum

Exposure Route

Experiment Dataset

Description:

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	1.43	-0.000184	3	3.84 1	7.81 0.699
Beta Poisson	1.43	-0.000184	2	3.84 1	5.99 0.49
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	1.65E-05	1.20E-05	1.30E-05	1.35E-05	2.03E-05	2.12E-05	2.28E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC*	4.2E+04	3.04E+04	3.27E+04	3.41E+04	5.14E+04	5.35E+04	5.80E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

Bacillus Graph 2.png

References