Optimization Output for Exp. 17 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	17
Pathogen	Burkholderia mallei
Agent Strain	KHW
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Liu, B. ., Koo, G. C., Yap, E. H., Chua, K. L., & Y-h, G. . (2002). Model of Differential Susceptibility to Mucosal Burkholderia pseudomallei Infection. Infection and Immunity, 70, 2.
Exposure Route	intranasal
Response	infection

Detailed information

Host type

BALB/c mice

# of Doses

5.00

Dose Units

CFU

Μodel

exponential

k

1.04E-02

LD50/ID50

6.63E+01

Experiment Dataset

Description

**BALB/c Mice KHW Strain Data**
Dose	Infected	Non-infected	Total
5	0	6	6
15	0	6	6
45	3	1	4
135	4	2	6
405	6	0	6

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	5.25	-0.000362	4	3.84 1	9.49 0.263
Beta Poisson	5.25	-0.000362	3	3.84 1	7.81 0.154
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	1.04E-02	4.94E-03	5.96E-03	6.60E-03	1.92E-02	2.45E-02	2.45E-02
ID50/LD50/ETC*	6.63E+01	2.82E+01	2.82E+01	3.61E+01	1.05E+02	1.16E+02	1.40E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Liu, B. ., Koo, G. C., Yap, E. H., Chua, K. L., & Y-h, G. . (2002). Model of Differential Susceptibility to Mucosal Burkholderia pseudomallei Infection. Infection and Immunity, 70, 2.