Optimization Output for Exp. 184 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	184
Pathogen	Campylobacter jejuni
Agent Strain	type strain for serotype PEN 1
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Blaser, M. J., Duncan, D. J., Warren, G. H., & W-ll, W. . (1983). Experimental Campylobacter jejuni Infection of Adult Mice. Infection and Immunity, 39, 2.
Exposure Route	intragastric
Response	infection

Detailed information

Host type	mice
# of Doses	5.00
Dose Units	CFU
Μodel	exponential
k	9.01E-07
LD50/ID50	7.69E+05

Description

**T1 Strain for serotype PEN 1 data**
Dose	Infected	Non-infected	Total
1	0	5	5
100	0	5	5
1E+04	0	5	5
1E+06	3	2	5
1E+08	5	0	5

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	0.0918	-0.000599	4	3.84 1	9.49 0.999
Beta Poisson	0.0924	-0.000599	3	3.84 1	7.81 0.993
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	9.01E-07	4.61E-08	2.21E-07	2.21E-07	4.61E-06	4.61E-06	4.61E-06
ID50/LD50/ETC*	7.69E+05	1.51E+05	1.51E+05	1.51E+05	3.14E+06	3.14E+06	1.51E+07
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Blaser, M. J., Duncan, D. J., Warren, G. H., & W-ll, W. . (1983). Experimental Campylobacter jejuni Infection of Adult Mice. Infection and Immunity, 39, 2.