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Experiment ID
112
Pathogen
Echovirus
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Pathogenesis of experimental Coxsackie virus infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
3.74E-01
N50
1.01E+03
LD50/ID50
1.01E+03
Dose Units
PFU
Response
infection
Agent Strain
strain 12
Exposure Route
oral
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
humans/ echovirus-12 strain [1]
Dose infected Non-infected Total
330 15 35 50
1000 9 11 20
3300 19 7 26
1E+04 12 0 12
33000 2 2 4
330000 2 1 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 122 110 5 3.84 
0		 11.1 
0
Beta Poisson 11.7 4 9.49 
0.0196
Neither the exponential nor beta-Poisson fits well; beta-Poisson is less bad.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.74E-01 1.24E-01 1.81E-01 2.09E-01 7.79E-01 9.41E-01 2.01E+00
N50 1.01E+03 3.84E+02 5.32E+02 5.94E+02 1.75E+03 1.97E+03 2.54E+03

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  1. Schiff, G. M., Stefanović G. M., Young E. C., Sander D. S., Pennekamp J. K., & Ward R. L. (1984).  Studies of echovirus-12 in volunteers: determination of minimal infectious dose and the effect of previous infection on infectious dose. The Journal of infectious diseases. 150, 6.