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Experiment ID
112
Pathogen
Echovirus
Agent Strain
strain 12
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Suptel, E. A. (1963). Pathogenesis of experimental Coxsackie virus infection. Archive of Virology, 7, 61-66.
Exposure Route
oral
Response
infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
6.00
Dose Units
PFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
3.74E-01
N50
1.01E+03
LD50/ID50
1.01E+03
Description
humans/ echovirus-12 strain 
Dose infected Non-infected Total
330 15 35 50
1000 9 11 20
3300 19 7 26
1E+04 12 0 12
33000 2 2 4
330000 2 1 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 122 110 5 3.84 
0 		11.1 
0
Beta Poisson 11.7 4 9.49 
0.0196
Neither the exponential nor beta-Poisson fits well; beta-Poisson is less bad.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.74E-01 1.24E-01 1.81E-01 2.09E-01 7.79E-01 9.41E-01 2.01E+00
N50 1.01E+03 3.84E+02 5.32E+02 5.94E+02 1.75E+03 1.97E+03 2.54E+03

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Schiff, G. M., Stefanović, G. M., Young, E. C., Sander, D. S., Pennekamp, J. K., & Ward, R. L. (1984). Studies of echovirus-12 in volunteers: determination of minimal infectious dose and the effect of previous infection on infectious dose. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 150, 6. Retrieved from https://academic.oup.com/jid/article-abstract/150/6/858/880281