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Experiment ID
256 (excluding the outliers of exp 112)
Pathogen
Echovirus
Contains Preferred Model
1
Reference
Studies of echovirus-12 in volunteers: determination of minimal infectious dose and the effect of previous infection on infectious dose
Host type
human
# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
1.06E+00
N50
9.22E+02
LD50/ID50
9.22E+02
Dose Units
PFU
Response
infection
Agent Strain
strain 12
Exposure Route
oral
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
humans/ echovirus-12 strain [1]
Dose infected Non-infected Total
330 15 35 50
1000 9 11 20
3300 19 7 26
1E+04 12 0 12

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 7.39 4.18 3 3.84 
0.041		 7.81 
0.0605
Beta Poisson 3.21 2 5.99 
0.201
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.06E+00 3.07E-01 4.04E-01 4.69E-01 1.23E+01 6.22E+02 3.74E+04
N50 9.22E+02 4.68E+02 5.59E+02 6.15E+02 1.37E+03 1.49E+03 1.73E+03

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  1. Schiff, G. M., Stefanović G. M., Young E. C., Sander D. S., Pennekamp J. K., & Ward R. L. (1984).  Studies of echovirus-12 in volunteers: determination of minimal infectious dose and the effect of previous infection on infectious dose. The Journal of infectious diseases. 150, 6.