Optimization Output for Exp. 274 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	274
Agent Strain	SCHU S-4
Contains Preferred Model	Yes
Reference	Quan, S. F., McManus, A. G., & von Fintel, H. . (1956). Infectivity of Tularemia Applied to Intact Skin and Ingested in Drinking Water. Science, 123, 942-943.
Exposure Route	inhalation
Response	death

Detailed information

Host type	monkey
# of Doses	4.00
Dose Units	CFU
Μodel	exponential
k	4.73E-02
LD50/ID50	1.46E+01

Description

Optimization Output for experiment 274

**Monkeys / SCHU S-4 model data**
Dose	Dead	Survived	Total
5	1	5	6
11	3	3	6
32	4	2	6
65	6	0	6

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	1.26	-0.000367	3	3.84 1	7.81 0.738
Beta Poisson	1.26	-0.000367	2	3.84 1	5.99 0.531
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	4.73E-02	2.28E-02	2.72E-02	2.98E-02	7.81E-02	9.03E-02	1.11E-01
ID50/LD50/ETC*	1.46E+01	6.27E+00	7.67E+00	8.88E+00	2.33E+01	2.55E+01	3.04E+01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Day, W. C., & Berendt, R. F. (1972). Experimental Tularemia in Macaca mulatta: Relationship of Aerosol Particle Size to the Infectivity of Airborne Pasteurella tularensis. Infection and Immunity, 5, 1.