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Experiment ID
13
Pathogen
Lassa virus
Agent Strain
Josiah strain
Contains Preferred Model
Yes
Reference
Jahrling, P. B., Smith, S. ., Hesse, R. A., & Rhoderick, J. B. (1982). Pathogenesis of Lassa virus infection in guinea pigs. Infection and Immunity, 37, 2. Retrieved from http://iai.asm.org/content/37/2/771.abstract
Exposure Route
subcutaneous
Response
death
Host type
guinea pig
# of Doses
6.00
Dose Units
PFU
Μodel
exponential
k
2.95E+00
LD50/ID50
2.35E-01
Description
Guinea pig/ Josiah strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
0.02 1 9 10
0.2 4 6 10
2 10 0 10
24 10 0 10
2400 15 0 15
240000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.42 -0.000621 5 3.84 
1 		11.1 
0.995
Beta Poisson 0.42 4 9.49 
0.981
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 2.95E+00 1.35E+00 1.61E+00 1.65E+00 5.43E+00 5.90E+00 7.52E+00
ID50/LD50/ETC* 2.35E-01 9.21E-02 1.17E-01 1.28E-01 4.21E-01 4.32E-01 5.14E-01
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Jahrling, P. B., Smith, S. ., Hesse, R. A., & Rhoderick, J. B. (1982). Pathogenesis of Lassa virus infection in guinea pigs. Infection and Immunity, 37, 2. Retrieved from http://iai.asm.org/content/37/2/771.abstract