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Experiment ID
15
Pathogen
Lassa virus
Agent Strain
Josiah strain
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Stephenson, E. H., Larson, E. W., & Dominik, J. W. (1984). Effect of environmental factors on aerosol-induced Lassa virus infection. Journal of Medical Virology, 14, 4. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.1890140402
Exposure Route
inhalation
Response
death
Host type
guinea pig
# of Doses
4.00
Dose Units
PFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
7.94E-02
N50
1.43E+04
LD50/ID50
1.43E+04
Description
Guinea pig/ Josiah strain model data 
Dose Dead Survived Total
5 1 7 8
48 1 7 8
724 3 5 8
5370 4 4 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 14.4 13.8 3 3.84 
0.000203 		7.81 
0.00237
Beta Poisson 0.633 2 5.99 
0.729
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 7.94E-02 9.77E-04 9.85E-04 9.87E-04 4.57E-01 1.19E+00 5.76E+02
N50 1.43E+04 2.13E-01 9.22E-01 2.90E+00 1.82E+13 3.06E+17 2.25E+34

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Stephenson, E. H., Larson, E. W., & Dominik, J. W. (1984). Effect of environmental factors on aerosol-induced Lassa virus infection. Journal of Medical Virology, 14, 4. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.1890140402