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Experiment ID
59
Pathogen
Poliovirus
Agent Strain
type 2,attenuated
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Sabin, A. B. (1955). Behavior of chimpanzee avirulent poliomyelitis viruses in experimentally infected human volunteers. The American Journal of the Medical Sciences, 230, 1.
Exposure Route
oral (liquid)
Response
alimentary infection
Host type
Chimpanzee
# of Doses
3.00
Dose Units
TCID50
Μodel
exponential
k
7.18E-08
LD50/ID50
9.66E+06
Description
Chimpanzee data(Poliovirus type2) 
Dose INFECTED NON-INFECTED Total
15800 0 2 2
1580000 1 2 3
1.58E+07 5 3 8

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 1.21 1.17 2 3.84 
0.279 		5.99 
0.547
Beta Poisson 0.0337 1 3.84 
0.854
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 7.18E-08 1.75E-08 2.65E-08 2.84E-08 1.75E-07 2.12E-07 6.87E-07
ID50/LD50/ETC* 9.66E+06 1.01E+06 3.28E+06 3.97E+06 2.44E+07 2.62E+07 3.96E+07
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Koprowski, H. . (1956). Immunization against Poliomyelitis with Living Attenuated Virus. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 5, 3.