Chimpanzee data(Poliovirus type2) [1]
| Dose |
INFECTED |
NON-INFECTED |
Total |
| 15800 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
| 1580000 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
| 1.58E+07 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
|
Goodness of fit and model selection
| Model |
Deviance |
Δ |
Degrees
of freedom |
χ20.95,1
p-value |
χ20.95,m-k
p-value |
| Exponential |
1.21 |
1.17 |
2 |
3.84
0.279 |
5.99
0.547 |
| Beta Poisson |
0.0337 |
1 |
3.84
0.854 |
| Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential. |
|
Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
| Parameter |
MLE estimate |
Percentiles |
| 0.5% |
2.5% |
5% |
95% |
97.5% |
99.5% |
| k |
7.18E-08 |
1.75E-08 |
2.65E-08 |
2.84E-08 |
1.75E-07 |
2.12E-07 |
6.87E-07 |
| ID50/LD50/ETC* |
9.66E+06 |
1.01E+06 |
3.28E+06 |
3.97E+06 |
2.44E+07 |
2.62E+07 |
3.96E+07 |
| *Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models. |
|
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
References
QMRA