Optimization Output for Exp. 312, 313 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	312, 313
Pathogen	Rhinovirus
Agent Strain	type 14
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Hendley, J. O., Edmondson, W. P., & Gwaltney, J. M. (1972). Relation between Naturally Acquired Immunity and Infectivity of Two Rhinoviruses in Volunteers. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 125, 3.
Exposure Route	intranasal
Response	infection

Detailed information

Host type	human
# of Doses	12.00
Dose Units	TCID50
Μodel	beta-Poisson
a	1.82E-01
N50	1.38E+01
LD50/ID50	1.38E+01

Description

**TITLE**
Dose	INFECTION	NOT INFECTION \|\| Total
0.05	0	4	4
0.15	1	4	5
0.5	0	4	4
0.5	3	14	17
1.5	2	3	5
1.5	4	10	14
5	1	4	5
5	4	11	15
15	4	3	7
50	28	14	42
150	13	8	21
300	5	2	7

"

**Goodness of fit and model** selection
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	78.6	72.3	11	3.84 {{{pbPbetter}}}	19.7 2.8e-12
Beta Poisson	6.22	72.3	10	3.84 {{{pbPbetter}}}	18.3 0.796
{{{interpretation}}}

"

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap**iterations
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	1.82E-01	1.04E-03	1.03E-01	1.14E-01	3.04E-01	3.38E-01	4.09E-01
N₅₀	1.38E+01	2.98E+00	5.64E+00	6.67E+00	3.77E+01	4.98E+01	1.32E+02

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Hendley, O. ., Edmondson, W. P. , Jr, & Gwaltney, J. M. , Jr. (1972). Relation between naturally acquired immunity and infectivity of two rhinoviruses in volunteers. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 125, 243–248.