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Experiment ID
64
Pathogen
Rhinovirus
Agent Strain
type 14
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Hendley, J. O., Edmondson, W. P., & Gwaltney, J. M. (1972). Relation between Naturally Acquired Immunity and Infectivity of Two Rhinoviruses in Volunteers. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 125, 3.
Exposure Route
intranasal
Response
infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
6.00
Dose Units
TCID50
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
2.01E-01
N50
9.22E+00
LD50/ID50
9.22E+00
Description
human/type 14 strain SF 765model data 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
0.5 1 8 9
1.5 4 6 10
5 4 6 10
15 6 4 10
150 27 13 40
300 10 2 12

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 51.8 50.2 5 3.84 
1.42e-12 		11.1 
5.8e-10
Beta Poisson 1.68 4 9.49 
0.794
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.01E-01 7.76E-02 1.07E-01 1.22E-01 3.36E-01 3.69E-01 4.61E-01
N50 9.22E+00 1.41E+00 2.57E+00 3.40E+00 2.47E+01 3.14E+01 5.26E+01

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Hendley, O. ., Edmondson, W. P. , Jr, & Gwaltney, J. M. , Jr. (1972). Relation between naturally acquired immunity and infectivity of two rhinoviruses in volunteers. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 125, 243–248.