Optimization Output for Exp. 125 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	125
Pathogen	Rotavirus
Agent Strain	CJN strain (unpassaged
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Ward, R. L., Bernstein, D. I., Young, E. C., Sherwood, J. R., Knowlton, D. R., & Schiff, G. M. (1986). Human Rotavirus Studies in Volunteers: Determination of Infectious Dose and Serological Response to Infection. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 154, 5. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/154.5.871
Exposure Route	oral
Response	detectable shedding

Detailed information

Host type

human

# of Doses

8.00

Dose Units

FFU

Μodel

beta-Poisson

a

9.6E-2

N50

96.1

LD50/ID50

96.1

Experiment Dataset

Description

**Model data for rotavirus (CJN strain) in the human**
Dose	Detectable shedding	No detectable shedding	Total
9E-03	0	7	7
0.09	0	7	7
0.9	1	6	7
9	8	3	11
90	4	3	7
900	3	5	8
9000	4	3	7
9E+04	2	1	3

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	157	148	7	3.84 0	14.1 0
Beta Poisson	9.42	148	6	3.84 0	12.6 0.151
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	9.6E-02	9.94E-04	9.96E-04	9.98E-04	1.59E-01	1.74E-01	2.05E-01
N₅₀	9.61E+01	2.95E-03	1.59E-02	4.56E-02	2.83E+03	1.46E+04	1.58E+80

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Ward, R. L., Bernstein, D. I., Young, E. C., Sherwood, J. R., Knowlton, D. R., & Schiff, G. M. (1986). Human Rotavirus Studies in Volunteers: Determination of Infectious Dose and Serological Response to Infection. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 154, 5. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/154.5.871