Human/ Salmonella anatum strain I & II pooled data [4]
| Dose |
Positive stool culture |
No positive stool culture |
Total |
| 12000 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
| 24000 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
| 66000 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
| 89000 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
| 93000 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
| 141000 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
| 256000 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
| 448000 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
| 587000 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
| 860000 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
| 1040000 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
| 3.9E+06 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
| 1E+07 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
| 2.39E+07 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
| 4.45E+07 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
| 6.73E+07 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
|
Goodness of fit and model selection
| Model |
Deviance |
Δ |
Degrees
of freedom |
χ20.95,1
p-value |
χ20.95,m-k
p-value |
| Exponential |
138 |
119 |
15 |
3.84
0 |
25
0 |
| Beta Poisson |
18.9 |
14 |
23.7
0.168 |
| Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson. |
|
Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
| Parameter |
MLE estimate |
Percentiles |
| 0.5% |
2.5% |
5% |
95% |
97.5% |
99.5% |
| α |
3.18E-01 |
1.35E-01 |
1.71E-01 |
1.92E-01 |
5.70E-01 |
6.66E-01 |
9.56E-01 |
| N50 |
3.71E+04 |
1.40E+03 |
5.50E+03 |
8.86E+03 |
8.82E+04 |
1.00E+05 |
1.30E+05 |
|
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
QMRA