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Experiment ID
167
Pathogen
Vibrio cholerae
Agent Strain
Inaba 569B (classical)
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Levine, M. ., Black, R. ., , Clements, M. ., Fusco, P. ., Hughes, T. ., … Young, C. . (1982). Reactogenicity, immunogenicity and efficacy studies of Escherichia coli type 1 somatic pili parenteral vaccine in man. Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases. Supplementum, 33, 83–95.
Exposure Route
oral (no NaHCO3)
Response
diarrhea and culture positive
Host type
human
# of Doses
7.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
1.31E-01
N50
2.91E+09
LD50/ID50
2.91E+09
Description
Human Inaba 569B 
Dose Diarrhea and culture positive No diarrhea and culture positive Total
1E+04 0 2 2
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+07 0 4 4
1E+08 2 2 4
1E+09 0 2 2
1E+10 0 1 1
1E+11 2 0 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 14.9 7.58 6 3.84 
0.00589 		12.6 
0.0207
Beta Poisson 7.36 5 11.1 
0.195
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.31E-01 1.04E-03 1.04E-03 1.04E-03 1.67E-01 1.67E-01 1.67E-01
N50 2.91E+09 3.23E+08 3.23E+08 3.23E+08 8.87E+254 8.87E+254 8.87E+254

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Cash, R. A., Music, S. I., Libonati, J. P., Snyder, M. J., Wenzel, R. P., & Hornick, R. B. (1974). Response of Man to Infection with Vibrio cholerae. I. Clinical, Serologic, and Bacteriologic Responses to a Known Inoculum. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 129, 1. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/129.1.45