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Experiment ID
70
Pathogen
Rotavirus
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Ward, R. L., Bernstein, D. I., Young, E. C., Sherwood, J. R., Knowlton, D. R., & Schiff, G. M. (1986). Human Rotavirus Studies in Volunteers: Determination of Infectious Dose and Serological Response to Infection. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 154, 5. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/154.5.871
Exposure Route
oral
Host type
human
# of Doses
8.00
Dose Units
FFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
2.53E-02
k
6.17E+00
LD50/ID50
6.17E+00
Experiment Dataset
Description
Model data for rotavirus (CJN strain) in the human 
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
9E-03 0 7 7
0.09 0 7 7
0.9 1 6 7
9 8 3 11
90 6 1 7
900 7 1 8
9000 5 2 7
9E+04 3 0 3

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 125 119 7 3.84 
0 		14.1 
0
Beta Poisson 6.2 6 12.6 
0.401
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 2.53E-01 1.28E-01 1.51E-01 1.64E-01 5.18E-01 6.58E-01 6.76E+02
N50 6.17E+00 1.46E+00 2.17E+00 2.49E+00 1.89E+01 2.49E+01 4.37E+01

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters

 

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Ward, R. L., Bernstein, D. I., Young, E. C., Sherwood, J. R., Knowlton, D. R., & Schiff, G. M. (1986). Human Rotavirus Studies in Volunteers: Determination of Infectious Dose and Serological Response to Infection. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 154, 5. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/154.5.871