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Experiment ID
126
Pathogen
Vibrio cholerae
Agent Strain
Inaba 569B
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Kotak, B. G., Kenefick, S. L., Fritz, D. L., Rousseaux, C. G., Prepas, E. E., & Hrudey, S. E. (1993). Occurrence and toxicological evaluation of cyanobacterial toxins in Alberta lakes and farm dugouts. Water Research, 27, 3.
Exposure Route
oral (with NaHCO3)
Response
any diarrhea
Host type
human
# of Doses
6.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
3.18E-01
N50
6.82E+03
LD50/ID50
6.82E+03
Description
Human Inaba Strain 569 B 
Dose Diarrhea No diarrhea Total
10 0 2 2
1000 0 4 4
1E+04 9 4 13
1E+05 6 2 8
1E+06 20 3 23
1E+08 2 0 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 55.2 51.9 5 3.84 
5.88e-13 		11.1 
1.19e-10
Beta Poisson 3.3 4 9.49 
0.508
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.18E-01 1.51E-01 1.84E-01 2.00E-01 6.52E-01 7.34E-01 1.66E+00
N50 6.82E+03 1.68E+03 2.35E+03 2.75E+03 1.83E+04 2.25E+04 3.38E+04

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Hornick, R. B., Music, S. I., Wenzel, R. ., Cash, R. ., Libonati, J. P., Snyder, M. J., & Woodward, T. E. (1971). The Broad Street pump revisited: response of volunteers to ingested cholera vibrios. Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 47, 10. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1749960/