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Experiment ID
128
Pathogen
Vibrio cholerae
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Experimental Human Salmonellosis: I. Pathogenicity of Strains of Salmonella Meleagridis and Salmonella Anatum Obtained from Spray-Dried Whole Egg
Host type
human
# of Doses
6.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
1.10E-01
N50
3.88E+07
LD50/ID50
3.88E+07
Dose Units
CFU
Response
cholera diarrhea
Agent Strain
Inaba 569B
Exposure Route
oral (with NaHCO3)
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
Human Inaba Strain 569 B [1]
Dose Cholera diarrhea No cholera diarrhea Total
10 0 2 2
1000 0 4 4
1E+04 0 13 13
1E+05 1 7 8
1E+06 6 17 23
1E+08 1 1 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 23.3 22.8 5 3.84 
1.81e-06		 11.1 
0.000297
Beta Poisson 0.504 4 9.49 
0.973
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.1E-01 1.94E-02 3.52E-02 3.83E-02 6.23E+01 4.54E+02 1.10E+03
N50 3.88E+07 1.13E+06 1.47E+06 1.71E+06 7.30E+11 4.70E+12 6.70E+18

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  1. Hornick, R. B., Music S. I., Wenzel R., Cash R., Libonati J. P., Snyder M. J., et al. (1971).  The Broad Street pump revisited: response of volunteers to ingested cholera vibrios. Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine. 47, 10.