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Experiment ID
167
Pathogen
Vibrio cholerae
Contains Preferred Model
0
Reference
Reactogenicity, immunogenicity and efficacy studies of Escherichia coli type 1 somatic pili parenteral vaccine in man.
Host type
human
# of Doses
7.00
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
1.31E-01
N50
2.91E+09
LD50/ID50
2.91E+09
Dose Units
CFU
Response
diarrhea and culture positive
Agent Strain
Inaba 569B (classical)
Exposure Route
oral (no NaHCO3)
Experiment Dataset
Description: 
Human Inaba 569B [1]
Dose Diarrhea and culture positive No diarrhea and culture positive Total
1E+04 0 2 2
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+07 0 4 4
1E+08 2 2 4
1E+09 0 2 2
1E+10 0 1 1
1E+11 2 0 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 14.9 7.58 6 3.84 
0.00589		 12.6 
0.0207
Beta Poisson 7.36 5 11.1 
0.195
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.31E-01 1.04E-03 1.04E-03 1.04E-03 1.67E-01 1.67E-01 1.67E-01
N50 2.91E+09 3.23E+08 3.23E+08 3.23E+08 8.87E+254 8.87E+254 8.87E+254

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  1. Cash, R. A., Music S. I., Libonati J. P., Snyder M. J., Wenzel R. P., & Hornick R. B. (1974).  Response of Man to Infection with Vibrio cholerae. I. Clinical, Serologic, and Bacteriologic Responses to a Known Inoculum. The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 129, 1.