Optimization Output for Exp. 21,23 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	21,23
Pathogen	Burkholderia mallei
Agent Strain	W294, 316c
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Miller, W. R., Pannell, L. ., Cravitz, L. ., Tanner, W. A., & Rosebury, T. . (1948). Studies on Certain Biological Characteristics of Malleomyces mallei and Malleomyces pseudomallei. Journal of Bacteriology, 55, 1.
Exposure Route	intraperitoneal
Response	death

Detailed information

Host type

guinea pig and diabetic rat

# of Doses

11.00

Dose Units

CFU

Μodel

beta-Poisson

a

2.13E-01

N50

4.77E+02

LD50/ID50

4.77E+02

Experiment Dataset

Description

**Pooled data of guinea pig and diabetic rat**
Dose	DEATH	NOT DEATH	Total
44	1	4	5
440	3	2	5
3000	6	4	10
4400	4	1	5
3E+04	7	3	10
44000	5	0	5
3E+05	7	3	10
440000	5	0	5
3E+06	10	0	10
4.4E+06	4	1	5
3E+07	10	0	10

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	163	152	10	3.84 0	18.3 0
Beta Poisson	10.1	152	9	3.84 0	16.9 0.343
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	2.13E-01	9.14E-02	1.26E-01	1.39E-01	3.38E-01	3.76E-01	5.60E-01
N₅₀	4.77E+02	3.04E+00	1.63E+01	7.19E+01	2.16E+03	2.75E+03	4.44E+03

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Liu, B. ., Koo, G. C., Yap, E. H., Chua, K. L., & Y-h, G. . (2002). Model of Differential Susceptibility to Mucosal Burkholderia pseudomallei Infection. Infection and Immunity, 70, 2.