Optimization Output for Exp. 243

Basic information

Experiment ID	243
Pathogen	Legionella pneumophila
Agent Strain	Philadelphia 1
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Saslaw, S. ., & Carlisle, H. N. (1966). Aerosol infection of monkeys with Rickettsia rickettsii. Bacteriological Reviews, 30, 3.
Exposure Route	inhalation
Response	death

Detailed information

Host type	guinea pig
# of Doses	5.00
Dose Units	CFU
Μodel	exponential
k	4.17E-05
LD50/ID50	1.66E+04

Description

**Guinea pigs/ Philadelphia 1 Strain model data**
Dose	Dead	Survived	Total
1E+04	1	4	5
15000	0	3	3
2E+04	5	2	7
5E+04	3	0	3
1E+05	5	0	5

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	5.85	-0.000131	4	3.84 1	9.49 0.211
Beta Poisson	5.85	-0.000131	3	3.84 1	7.81 0.119
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	4.17E-05	2.29E-05	2.68E-05	3.00E-05	5.87E-05	6.78E-05	7.86E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC*	1.66E+04	8.82E+03	1.02E+04	1.18E+04	2.31E+04	2.59E+04	3.03E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Breiman, R. F., & Horwitz, M. A. (1987). Guinea pigs sublethally infected with aerosolized Legionella pneumophila develop humoral and cell-mediated immune responses and are protected against lethal aerosol challenge. A model for studying host defense against lung infections caused by intracellul. The Journal of Experimental Medicine, 165, 3.