Submitted by admin on

Experiment ID
35
Pathogen
Vibrio cholerae
Agent Strain
Inaba 569B
Contains Preferred Model
No
Reference
Hornick, R. B., Music, S. I., Wenzel, R. ., Cash, R. ., Libonati, J. P., Snyder, M. J., & Woodward, T. E. (1971). The Broad Street pump revisited: response of volunteers to ingested cholera vibrios. Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 47, 10. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1749960/
Exposure Route
oral (no NaHCO3)
Response
diarrhea or culture positive
Host type
human
# of Doses
7.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
1.98E-01
N50
6.36E+08
LD50/ID50
6.36E+08
Description

Please Note

The results from this experiment are not recommended for use, rather they are present for reference purposes. The confidence intervals are not complete for this experiment since the data is not allowing for a stable bootstrap outcome. It is recommended to use the recommended model as this data is likely just capable of passing the test of trend, but still likely suboptimal for dose response modeling purposes.

 

Human Inaba Strain 569B 
Dose Diarrhea or culture positive No diarrhea or culture positive Total
1E+04 0 2 2
1E+06 0 4 4
1E+07 0 4 4
1E+08 2 2 4
1E+09 1 1 2
1E+10 0 1 1
1E+11 2 0 2

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 15.1 10.4 6 3.84 
0.00126 		12.6 
0.0193
Beta Poisson 4.72 5 11.1 
0.451
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 1.98E-01 9.92E-04 9.92E-04 1.04E-03 3.20E-01 3.65E-01 4.07E-01
N50 6.36E+08 8.26E+05 8.26E+05 1.18E+08 5.33E+207 5.33E+207 8.87E+254

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Hornick, R. B., Music, S. I., Wenzel, R. ., Cash, R. ., Libonati, J. P., Snyder, M. J., & Woodward, T. E. (1971). The Broad Street pump revisited: response of volunteers to ingested cholera vibrios. Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 47, 10. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1749960/