Human data( Poliovirus type 1) [1]
| Dose |
INFECTED |
NON-INFECTED |
Total |
| 0.2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
| 2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| 20 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
|
Goodness of fit and model selection
| Model |
Deviance |
Δ |
Degrees
of freedom |
χ20.95,1
p-value |
χ20.95,m-k
p-value |
| Exponential |
0.415 |
-7.99e-07 |
2 |
3.84
1 |
5.99
0.812 |
| Beta Poisson |
0.415 |
1 |
3.84
0.519 |
| Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential. |
|
Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
| Parameter |
MLE estimate |
Percentiles |
| 0.5% |
2.5% |
5% |
95% |
97.5% |
99.5% |
| k |
4.91E-01 |
1.30E-01 |
1.30E-01 |
2.25E-01 |
1.39E+00 |
1.39E+00 |
1.39E+00 |
| ID50/LD50/ETC* |
1.41E+00 |
5.00E-01 |
5.00E-01 |
5.00E-01 |
3.08E+00 |
5.33E+00 |
5.33E+00 |
| *Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models. |
|
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
References
QMRA