Optimization Output for Exp. 85 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	85
Pathogen	Bacillus anthracis
Agent Strain	ATCC 6605
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Druett, H. A., Henderson, D. W., Packman, L. ., & Peacock, S. . (1953). Studies on respiratory infection. The Journal of Hygiene, 51, 3.
Exposure Route	inhalation
Response	death

Detailed information

Host type	guinea pig
# of Doses	6.00
Dose Units	spores
Μodel	exponential
k	7.11E-06
LD50/ID50	9.75E+04

Description

**Guinea pig/ATCC 6605 Strain model data**
Dose	Dead	Survived	Total
30	0	6	6
300	1	5	6
3000	0	10	10
3E+04	3	7	10
3E+05	8	2	10
3E+06	10	0	10

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	8.56	1.81	5	3.84 0.178	11.1 0.128
Beta Poisson	6.75	1.81	4	3.84 0.178	9.49 0.15
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized parameters for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	7.11E-06	2.60E-06	3.52E-06	3.87E-06	1.61E-05	1.97E-05	2.85E-05
ID50/LD50/ETC*	9.75E+04	2.43E+04	3.52E+04	4.30E+04	1.79E+05	1.97E+05	2.66E+05
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Altboum, Z. ., Gozes, Y. ., Barnea, A. ., Pass, A. ., White, M. ., & Kobiler, D. . (2002). Postexposure prophylaxis against anthrax: evaluation of various treatment regimens in intranasally infected guinea pigs. Infection and Immunity, 70, 6231–6241.