Model data for rotavirus (CJN strain) in the human [1]
| Dose |
Detectable shedding |
No detectable shedding |
Total |
| 9E-03 |
0 |
7 |
7 |
| 0.09 |
0 |
7 |
7 |
| 0.9 |
1 |
6 |
7 |
| 9 |
8 |
3 |
11 |
| 90 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
| 900 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
| 9000 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
| 9E+04 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
Goodness of fit and model selection
| Model |
Deviance |
Δ |
Degrees
of freedom |
χ20.95,1
p-value |
χ20.95,m-k
p-value |
| Exponential |
157 |
148 |
7 |
3.84
0 |
14.1
0 |
| Beta Poisson |
9.42 |
6 |
12.6
0.151 |
| Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson. |
|
Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
| Parameter |
MLE estimate |
Percentiles |
| 0.5% |
2.5% |
5% |
95% |
97.5% |
99.5% |
| α |
9.6E-02 |
9.94E-04 |
9.96E-04 |
9.98E-04 |
1.59E-01 |
1.74E-01 |
2.05E-01 |
| N50 |
9.61E+01 |
2.95E-03 |
1.59E-02 |
4.56E-02 |
2.83E+03 |
1.46E+04 |
1.58E+80 |
|
Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.
beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
References
QMRA