Model data for rotavirus (OSU (ATCC VR892)) in the pig [1]
| Dose |
Infected |
Non-infected |
Total |
| 0.9 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
| 9 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
| 90 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
| 900 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
| 2800 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
| 9000 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
| 56000 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
| 1.1E+07 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
| 2.2E+08 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
| 4.5E+09 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
Goodness of fit and model selection
| Model |
Deviance |
Δ |
Degrees
of freedom |
χ20.95,1
p-value |
χ20.95,m-k
p-value |
| Exponential |
1.1 |
-0.0019 |
9 |
3.84
1 |
16.9
0.999 |
| Beta Poisson |
1.1 |
8 |
15.5
0.998 |
| Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential. |
|
Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
| Parameter |
MLE estimate |
Percentiles |
| 0.5% |
2.5% |
5% |
95% |
97.5% |
99.5% |
| k |
1.73E-02 |
4.64E-03 |
7.21E-03 |
7.21E-03 |
3.28E-02 |
3.28E-02 |
3.28E-02 |
| ID50/LD50/ETC* |
4E+01 |
2.11E+01 |
2.11E+01 |
2.11E+01 |
9.61E+01 |
9.61E+01 |
1.49E+02 |
| *Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models. |
|
Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)
Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model
References
QMRA