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Experiment ID
63
Pathogen
Enterovirus
Agent Strain
porcine, PE7-05i
Contains Preferred Model
Yes
Reference
Cliver, D. O. (1981). Experimental infection by waterborne enteroviruses. Journal of Food Protection, 44, 861–865. Retrieved from http://www.jfoodprotection.org/doi/abs/10.4315/0362-028X-44.11.861?code=fopr-site
Exposure Route
oral
Response
infection
Host type
pig
# of Doses
3.00
Dose Units
PFU
Μodel
exponential
k
3.74E-03
LD50/ID50
1.85E+02
Description
pigs/ Porcine enterovirus type 7 
Dose infected Non-infected Total
250 4 2 6
250 3 3 6
1000 5 0 5

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.614 -5.49e-05 2 3.84 
1 		5.99 
0.736
Beta Poisson 0.614 1 3.84 
0.433
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 3.74E-03 1.83E-03 2.19E-03 2.19E-03 5.62E-03 5.62E-03 5.62E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 1.85E+02 1.23E+02 1.23E+02 1.23E+02 3.16E+02 3.16E+02 3.79E+02
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • Cliver, D. O. (1981). Experimental infection by waterborne enteroviruses. Journal of Food Protection, 44, 861-865. Retrieved from http://www.jfoodprotection.org/doi/abs/10.4315/0362-028X-44.11.861?code=fopr-site