Optimization Output for Exp. 281 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	281
Pathogen	Pseudomonas aeruginosa
Agent Strain	ATCC 19660
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Hazlett, L. D., Rosen, D. D., & Berk, R. S. (1978). Age-Related Susceptibility to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Ocular Infections in Mice. Infection and Immunity, 20, 1.
Exposure Route	injected in eyelids
Response	death

Detailed information

Host type	Swiss webster mice (5day old)
# of Doses	6.00
Dose Units	CFU
Μodel	exponential
k	8.52E-05
LD50/ID50	8.13E+03

Description

mice (5day old) / *Pseudomonas aeruginosa*
Dose	Dead	Survived	Total
2.5	0	13	13
25	0	14	14
250	0	12	12
2500	4	13	17
25000	13	2	15
250000	17	0	17

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	0.802	0.0885	5	3.84 0.766	11.1 0.977
Beta Poisson	0.713	0.0885	4	3.84 0.766	9.49 0.95
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

**Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
k	8.52E-05	4.21E-05	4.99E-05	5.50E-05	1.53E-04	1.57E-04	2.05E-04
ID50/LD50/ETC*	8.13E+03	3.38E+03	4.40E+03	4.54E+03	1.26E+04	1.39E+04	1.65E+04
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Hazlett, L. D., Rosen, D. D., & Berk, R. S. (1978). Age-Related Susceptibility to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Ocular Infections in Mice. Infection and Immunity, 20, 1.