Optimization Output for Exp. 297 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	297
Pathogen	Pseudomonas aeruginosa
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Lawin-Brüssel, C. A., Refojo, M. F., Leong, F. L., Hanninen, L. ., & Kenyon, K. R. (1993). Effect of Pseudomonas aeruginosa concentration in experimental contact lens-related microbial keratitis. Cornea, 12, 1.
Exposure Route	contact lens
Response	corneal ulceration

Detailed information

Host type	white rabbit
# of Doses	5.00
Dose Units	CFU
Μodel	beta-Poisson
a	3.55E-01
N50	6.57E+03
LD50/ID50	6.57E+03

Description

White rabbit / *Pseudomonas aeruginosa*
Dose	Corneal Ulceration	Not Corneal Ulceration	Total
63.2	0	5	5
2220	2	3	5
13200	3	2	5
78000	3	2	5
462000	5	0	5

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	9.41	7.02	4	3.84 0.00807	9.49 0.0516
Beta Poisson	2.39	7.02	3	3.84 0.00807	7.81 0.495
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	3.55E-01	1.53E-01	1.76E-01	1.91E-01	4.52E+00	1.73E+07	1.35E+11
N₅₀	6.57E+03	7.71E+02	1.44E+03	1.70E+03	2.55E+04	4.30E+04	8.32E+04

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Lawin-Brüssel, C. A., Refojo, M. F., Leong, F. L., Hanninen, L. ., & Kenyon, K. R. (1993). Effect of Pseudomonas aeruginosa concentration in experimental contact lens-related microbial keratitis. Cornea, 12, 1.