Optimization Output for Exp. 297 & 298 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	297 & 298
Pathogen	Pseudomonas aeruginosa
Contains Preferred Model	Yes
Reference	Lawin-Brüssel, C. A., Refojo, M. F., Leong, F. L., Hanninen, L. ., & Kenyon, K. R. (1993). Effect of Pseudomonas aeruginosa concentration in experimental contact lens-related microbial keratitis. Cornea, 12, 1.
Exposure Route	contact lens
Response	corneal ulceration

Detailed information

Host type	white rabbit
# of Doses	10.00
Dose Units	CFU
Μodel	beta-Poisson
a	1.9E-01
N50	1.85E+04
LD50/ID50	1.85E+04

Description

Pooled data of White rabbit / *Pseudomonas aeruginosa*
Dose	Corneal Ulceration	Not Corneal Ulceration	Total
63.2	0	5	5
63.2	0	5	5
2220	2	3	5
2220	2	3	5
13200	3	2	5
13200	1	4	5
78000	3	2	5
78000	1	4	5
462000	5	0	5
462000	4	1	5

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	30.9	20.8	9	3.84 5.11e-06	16.9 0.000312
Beta Poisson	10.1	20.8	8	3.84 5.11e-06	15.5 0.26
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	1.9E-01	9.63E-02	1.15E-01	1.24E-01	3.86E-01	5.51E-01	2.50E+00
N₅₀	1.85E+04	3.18E+03	4.73E+03	6.01E+03	7.05E+04	8.98E+04	1.97E+05

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Lawin-Brüssel, C. A., Refojo, M. F., Leong, F. L., Hanninen, L. ., & Kenyon, K. R. (1993). Effect of Pseudomonas aeruginosa concentration in experimental contact lens-related microbial keratitis. Cornea, 12, 1.