Optimization Output for Exp. 298 | QMRA wiki

Basic information

Experiment ID	298
Pathogen	Pseudomonas aeruginosa
Contains Preferred Model	No
Reference	Lawin-Brüssel, C. A., Refojo, M. F., Leong, F. L., Hanninen, L. ., & Kenyon, K. R. (1993). Effect of Pseudomonas aeruginosa concentration in experimental contact lens-related microbial keratitis. Cornea, 12, 1.
Exposure Route	contact lens
Response	Severe stromal ulceration

Detailed information

Host type	white rabbit
# of Doses	5.00
Dose Units	CFU
Μodel	beta-Poisson
a	1.09E-01
N50	1.52E+05
LD50/ID50	1.52E+05

Description

White rabbit / *Pseudomonas aeruginosa*
Dose	Severe Stromal Ulceration	Not Corneal Ulceration	Total
63.2	0	5	5
2220	2	3	5
13200	1	4	5
78000	1	4	5
462000	4	1	5

**Goodness of fit and model selection**
Model	Deviance	Δ	Degrees of freedom	χ²_0.95,1 p-value	χ²_0.95,m-k p-value
Exponential	13.2	8.73	4	3.84 0.00313	9.49 0.0105
Beta Poisson	4.43	8.73	3	3.84 0.00313	7.81 0.219
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

**Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations**
Parameter	MLE estimate	Percentiles
Parameter	MLE estimate	0.5%	2.5%	5%	95%	97.5%	99.5%
α	1.09E-01	4.05E-02	5.23E-02	5.72E-02	9.05E+06	4.82E+07	2.53E+12
N₅₀	1.52E+05	4.66E+03	1.13E+04	1.55E+04	1.55E+07	6.25E+07	1.96E+09

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

Lawin-Brüssel, C. A., Refojo, M. F., Leong, F. L., Hanninen, L. ., & Kenyon, K. R. (1993). Effect of Pseudomonas aeruginosa concentration in experimental contact lens-related microbial keratitis. Cornea, 12, 1.