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Experiment ID
238
Pathogen
Salmonella meleagridis
Agent Strain
strain I
Contains Preferred Model
Yes
Reference
McCullough, N. ., & Elsele, C. . (1951). Experimental Human Salmonellosis: I. Pathogenicity of Strains of Salmonella Meleagridis and Salmonella Anatum Obtained from Spray-Dried Whole Egg. Oxford Journal of Infectious Diseases, 88(3). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/88.3.278
Exposure Route
oral (with eggnog)
Response
infection
Host type
human
# of Doses
11.00
Dose Units
CFU
Μodel
beta-Poisson
a
3.89E-01
N50
1.68E+04
LD50/ID50
1.68E+04
Description
Human / S. meleagridis strain I data
Dose Infected Non-infected Total
12000 3 3 6
24000 4 2 6
52000 3 3 6
96000 3 3 6
155000 5 1 6
3E+05 6 0 6
720000 4 1 5
1150000 6 0 6
5.5E+06 5 1 6
2.4E+07 5 0 5
5E+07 6 0 6

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value 		χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 71.8 63.8 10 3.84 
1.33e-15 		18.3 
1.98e-11
Beta Poisson 7.99 9 16.9 
0.535
Beta-Poisson fits better than exponential; cannot reject good fit for beta-Poisson.

 

Optimized parameters for the beta-Poisson model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
α 3.89E-01 1.23E-01 1.74E-01 2.01E-01 1.12E+00 1.91E+00 3.82E+02
N50 1.68E+04 7.98E+01 1.08E+03 2.27E+03 4.78E+04 5.71E+04 7.49E+04

 

Parameter scatter plot for beta Poisson model ellipses signify the 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99 confidence of the parameters.

beta Poisson model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  • McCullough, N. ., & Elsele, C. . (1951). Experimental human salmonellosis: I. Pathogenicity of strains of Salmonella meleagridis and Salmonella anatum obtained from spray-dried whole egg. Oxford Journal of Infectious Diseases, 88(3). https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/88.3.278